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Almost three decades ago, one of us, Jack Goldstone, published a simple model to determine a country’s vulnerability to political crisis. The model was based on how population changes shifted state, elite and popular behavior. Goldstone argued that, according to this Demographic-Structural Theory, in the 21st century, America was likely to get a populist, America-first leader who would sow a whirlwind of conflict.
Then ten years ago, the other of us, Peter Turchin, applied Goldstone’s model to U.S. history, using current data. What emerged was alarming: The U.S. was heading toward the highest level of vulnerability to political crisis seen in this country in over a hundred years. Even before Trump was elected, Turchin published his prediction that the U.S. was headed for the “Turbulent Twenties,” forecasting a period of growing instability in the United States and western Europe.
Then ten years ago, the other of us, Peter Turchin, applied Goldstone’s model to U.S. history, using current data. What emerged was alarming: The U.S. was heading toward the highest level of vulnerability to political crisis seen in this country in over a hundred years. Even before Trump was elected, Turchin published his prediction that the U.S. was headed for the “Turbulent Twenties,” forecasting a period of growing instability in the United States and western Europe.
MORE THAN 6,400 scientists, researchers & healthcare professionals have now signed the John Snow Memorandum.
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ONS survey said 86.1% of people between April and June had none of the virus’ main symptoms
86% of people who tested positive for Covid-19 during lockdown did not have virus symptoms (cough, and/or fever, and/or loss of taste/smell), finds a study by UCL researchers. The authors say a more widespread testing programme is needed to catch ‘silent’ transmission.
Being a man, having a lower income, having a lower level of education, not being married, and being born abroad in low- or middle-income countries – these are factors that, independent of one another, are related to an elevated risk of dying from COVID-19. These are the findings of a new study in the journal Nature Communications from Stockholm University.
AFP Fact Check has debunked more than 600 false and misleading claims about the pandemic.
Harvard epidemiologist Martin Kulldorff on the Great Barrington Declaration and why lockdown harms public health.
In the middle of a devastating global pandemic, a few thousand people gathered to protest against measures meant to slow the spread of the virus.
AbstractBackground. Weeks after issuing social distancing orders to suppress severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and redu
There is much talk of a second wave of coronavirus in Europe. But what does the data tell us?
If you plan to travel to Europe, Euronews has listed everything you need to know, country by country.
Work, life and balancing it all during coronaviru…: https://youtu.be/dL4pkFxy7t4
The French government will join forces with the tourism industry to build an Internet site aimed winning back customers from U.S. online travel giants such as Airbnb Inc. and Booking Holdings Inc.
We need to remake the world we left behind. And we need to start with how we care for one another.
Scientists are piecing together how SARS-CoV-2 operates, where it came from and what it might do next — but pressing questions remain about the source of COVID-19.
The COVID-19 epidemic is believed to have started in late January 2020 in France. We report here a case of a patient hospitalized in December 2019 in …
Anna Lopatina tested negative for COVID-19, and the official cause of her death was pneumonia -- but she was buried like a victim of the coronavirus, in a coffin wrapped in cellophane. The story of...
The dawn of a pandemic—as seen through the news and social media posts that vanished from China’s internet.
For all but the biggest of artists, life as a musician could be about to get a lot harder.
Daily updated slides with pandemic data.